This week, we celebrated Groundhog Day, an event in which a Punxsutawney, PA-based groundhog (Punxsutawney Phil) predicts the fate of Americans by predicting a prolonged winter or early spring. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow upon emerging from his burrow, then it’s bad news for all as he is reputed to be frightened by his shadow and will then return to his burrow to settle down for six more weeks of winter. If he does not see his shadow, then he’ll stay above ground and we’ll be treated to an early spring. According to USA Today, the origins of Groundhog Day “lie in an ancient European celebration of Candlemas, which is a point midway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox.”
Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this week, so believers in this bit of Americana folklore should get ready to start preparing their yards for spring. Those of us in the scientific community, however, are more skeptical of Punxsutawney Phil’s weather-predicting prowess, and a report by the Asheville, N.C.-based National Centers for Environmental Information has indicated that the groundhog has very little predictive skill. According to the report, Punxsutawney Phil has only been right about the weather about half of the time since 1988. Evidently, he was ‘right’ 13 times and ‘wrong’ 15 times, meaning only 13 times did the national average temperature for the remainder of February match what would be expected based on what the groundhog predicted.
There are more than one version of this famous groundhog. Punxsutawney Phil is the most famous, but other furry forecasters include: West Virginia's French Creek Freddie, Georgia's Gen. Beauregard Lee, Ohio's Buckeye Chuck, North Carolina's Sir Wally Wally, Louisiana's Cajun Groundhog, Alabama's Smith Lake Jake and New York's Staten Island Chuck (full name: Charles G. Hogg).
Societies perspectives on groundhogs aren’t as pleasant as the festivities surrounding their weather-predicting prowess. Besides causing damage to our gardens, lawns and shrubbery, groundhogs can potentially spread zoonotic diseases, or bacteria and viruses that can pass from animals to humans (and vice versa). A zoonotic disease that causes great concern for the health of humans and animals is rabies, a typically fatal virus that attacks the nervous system after being contracted through the bite of an infected animal. Fortunately, the routine vaccination of our dogs, cats, horses and other species, including humans, has helped curtail the spread of rabies.
According to The Worms and Germs Blog, in 2009, “an aggressive groundhog in New Jersey that tried to attack two police officers and one other person was confirmed to have rabies. Police were called to a house because the groundhog in the garage charged the house owner as he tried to get into his truck. The groundhog was subdued with pepper spray, caught, euthanized and tested for rabies. Fortunately, none of the people came in direct contact with the animal, therefore there was no exposure and rabies post-exposure prophylaxis was not required.”
There’s a low likelihood that groundhogs are capable of spreading rabies, and Worms and Germs reports that 123 rabid groundhogs have been identified in New Jersey since 1989, compared to 4,175 raccoons. This is likely because of the groundhog’s vegetarian dietary habits and tendency to stay underground in burrows where they are less susceptible to exposure from the bite of a rabid animal.
Should you encounter an aggressive animal, it’s always safest to consider that animal to be rabies positive and avoid all contact. If a wild animal bites you, make sure to immediately seek medical attention and fully disclose the nature of the incident to your doctor. Bites from rabies-positive animals can have fatal consequences for animals and people that have not been vaccinated for the disease or don’t seek immediate medical treatment.
Fortunately, you can now cautiously rejoice about the early spring that Punxsutawney Phil predicted will soon be upon us. What are your thoughts on Groundhog Day and its weather prediction? Feel free to leave your perspective in the comments section.
Dr. Patrick Mahaney
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